When are the RBA minutes and how might they affect AUD/USD?

Early Tuesday morning, at 01:30 GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release a minutes statement of the latest monetary policy meeting held during the early-July.

The RBA’s July month monetary policy meeting matched wide market forecasts of no rate cut and an intact bond-buying program. However, fears of the coronavirus (COVID-19) second wave and related economic pessimism gained more attention. The same pushed the Aussie central bank to say, “Likely that fiscal, monetary support will be required for some time.”

Following the minutes, RBA Governor Philip Lowe will also speak on COVID-19: The Labor Market and Public-sector Balance Sheets in a private event around 02:30 GMT. The pair traders will closely watch over the central banker’s tone to ascertain the fears of the spreading of the pandemic in the Pacific major.

Concerning the event, Westpac said,

The statement on the day was notably less upbeat than in June. Likely more important for markets is one hour later when we hear RBA Governor Lowe’s annual speech for the Anika Foundation Luncheon, this year titled, “COVID 19, the Labour Market and Public-sector Balance Sheets.

On the other hand, TD Securities considered the event as having a little importance,

The July RBA statement steered clear of mentioning the second wave virus count in Vic. So we will be looking for any signs if this was discussed in the July Minutes and if this is testing the RBA's upbeat outlook. An hour later the Governor speaks at the Anika Foundation Lunch. Governor Lowe's speech is titled 'Covid19, The Labour Market and Public-sector Balance Sheets'. The speech may touch on the Bank's preliminary assessment of its key forecasts and risks ahead of next month's Statement of Monetary Policy (SOMP).

How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?

Although RBA has already propelled markets with multi-million stimulus and rate cuts, odds of any further bond-buying can’t be ruled out. The reason could be traced from the nation’s sufferings due to the virus wave 2.0. Should the policymakers show readiness act, as they always do, while also marking bearish tones, the AUD/USD bulls will have to step back, even if for a while. On the contrary, no fears of the pandemic conveyed could escalate the pair’s north-run.

Technically, an ascending trend line from June 15, currently around 0.6905, limits the pair’s immediate downside. However, failures to cross June's monthly tops or downside break of 0.7000 can pull the quote backward to a 21-day SMA level of 0.6940. Alternatively, highs marked in June 2020 and July 2019, respectively near 0.7065 and 0.7085 can entertain the bulls ahead of 0.7100 round-figures.

Key Notes

AUD/USD eyes June’s top above 0.7000 ahead of RBA minutes, Lowe’s speech

AUD/USD Forecast: Poised to test the 0.7060 resistance area

About the RBA minutes

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.